Tuesday, August 5, 2008

Oil prices really dropping?

How real is the recent drop in oil prices? According to an article “Nothing to smile about” in the Economist, there is nothing to cheer about the recent drop in the oil prices. The real rate of interest is negative due to lower nominal rate and higher inflation. There is no incentive for oil producers to pump more oil in this negative interest rate scenario. The money produced by pumping more oil is not going provide positive return. The oil producers are better off by letting the oil in the reserve and pumping it when prices are high enough. During the time when inflation is so high, the lower oil prices remain distant dream.

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